* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 40 39 35 32 31 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 40 39 35 32 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 32 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 1 2 7 9 14 11 14 19 17 20 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 6 1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -6 -6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 223 251 141 324 296 308 312 313 282 270 271 254 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 146 145 143 144 144 143 141 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 63 69 74 70 70 67 63 59 57 57 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 28 22 6 13 -2 1 -12 -25 -37 -30 -30 200 MB DIV 78 111 117 98 45 15 20 12 15 19 27 38 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 961 1043 1126 1148 1174 1182 1186 1227 1258 1321 1369 1394 1418 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.3 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.6 115.7 116.9 117.9 119.0 120.1 120.9 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 48 45 39 27 16 20 23 22 19 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 10. 7. 6. 3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)