* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 41 47 53 54 54 51 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 41 47 53 54 54 51 48 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 41 43 44 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 10 10 2 5 10 9 8 12 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -2 2 2 1 -5 -1 -3 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 210 114 81 74 93 267 314 318 312 289 297 280 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 145 144 143 144 144 143 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 61 69 68 70 67 63 59 58 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 9 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 15 21 18 4 3 -4 -4 -7 -9 -12 -13 200 MB DIV -12 17 54 86 83 16 0 4 28 41 15 9 51 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1076 1091 1113 1129 1148 1185 1175 1201 1233 1272 1318 1369 1414 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.9 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.1 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 47 46 42 31 21 14 14 19 20 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 16. 22. 28. 29. 30. 26. 23. 22. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)