* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 09/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 61 63 63 55 46 38 31 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 61 63 63 55 46 38 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 35 35 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 19 13 11 7 16 10 14 7 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 1 0 1 -2 3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 32 31 41 32 66 33 36 42 57 71 96 124 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.0 25.0 22.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 158 151 144 136 114 87 75 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -51.4 -52.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 89 87 87 86 86 83 79 74 70 66 62 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 16 17 19 19 21 21 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 42 38 31 39 34 42 69 58 53 58 59 200 MB DIV 82 80 97 88 99 119 82 59 48 21 2 1 26 700-850 TADV -4 0 -3 -1 2 -2 -6 -7 -8 -4 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 523 505 484 451 441 450 450 493 590 761 920 1086 1257 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 17.1 19.0 20.6 21.7 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.2 104.0 105.1 106.1 108.5 111.2 114.1 117.0 119.8 122.3 124.5 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 13 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 45 48 48 27 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 26. 25. 23. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 36. 38. 38. 30. 21. 13. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 09/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)