* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 37 48 56 62 64 60 55 54 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 37 48 56 62 64 60 55 54 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 15 9 8 14 14 21 19 14 12 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 3 1 -2 3 0 0 -1 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 335 350 4 22 328 18 25 31 26 46 46 73 5 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.0 24.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 152 149 148 145 141 133 122 110 98 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 82 81 82 82 80 80 77 78 76 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 13 13 16 18 20 22 21 18 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -10 -8 -13 -10 -14 5 6 9 13 0 -8 200 MB DIV 62 88 85 87 98 81 54 66 32 49 40 10 15 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -4 -3 -10 -3 -5 -6 -7 -9 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 582 588 586 579 577 569 577 622 720 689 679 668 628 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 103.8 104.2 104.7 105.1 106.4 107.8 109.4 111.1 112.6 113.9 114.9 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 45 45 47 52 40 19 14 13 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 14. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 12. 23. 31. 37. 39. 35. 30. 29. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)