* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 52 60 69 67 70 69 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 52 60 69 67 70 69 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 48 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 9 9 9 15 17 16 16 15 14 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 -1 0 4 0 2 -4 -5 -2 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 10 7 350 325 4 6 25 33 23 15 2 9 349 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 152 152 150 147 144 142 139 133 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 84 81 79 79 82 82 83 82 80 79 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 15 16 19 17 21 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -19 -15 -9 -4 -3 -11 -21 -11 -5 8 12 23 200 MB DIV 71 77 89 110 130 110 84 49 61 61 62 63 44 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -3 -5 -4 -11 -4 -5 -4 -7 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 591 599 607 617 621 616 633 665 701 757 811 760 752 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 42 41 40 48 58 47 28 16 9 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 15. 13. 18. 20. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 27. 35. 44. 42. 45. 44. 42. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)