* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 11/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 46 47 47 43 35 24 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 46 47 47 43 35 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 38 41 41 41 39 37 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 14 15 15 16 6 11 36 65 75 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 -6 -1 2 6 3 -4 -11 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 63 62 84 102 107 123 176 225 239 230 237 228 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 28.0 28.6 28.2 27.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 144 141 138 138 146 152 145 137 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 62 61 56 55 54 49 45 44 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 11 23 33 20 31 20 14 23 59 78 29 200 MB DIV 64 57 54 51 50 33 43 33 41 52 58 3 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 -2 3 0 -5 -14 LAND (KM) 555 521 491 507 526 602 582 450 178 74 -116 -181 -107 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 9 13 13 8 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 16 14 10 6 5 8 7 5 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -2. -11. -21. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 17. 13. 5. -5. -12. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 11/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 11/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##