* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 10/31/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 43 47 46 42 35 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 43 47 46 42 35 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 41 39 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 15 18 17 15 11 9 21 36 52 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 1 11 6 3 9 6 SHEAR DIR 65 75 80 80 91 104 109 135 178 237 243 247 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.3 28.9 28.4 26.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 146 145 143 139 135 138 157 153 133 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 63 62 59 56 53 46 46 50 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 19 12 25 37 22 22 19 27 17 11 37 200 MB DIV 83 68 56 61 56 47 41 26 34 31 20 34 70 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 -1 15 80 78 LAND (KM) 604 575 552 545 542 595 612 537 355 171 -238 -270 -260 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.4 19.9 22.0 24.6 27.5 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.9 109.2 110.1 111.2 111.9 111.2 108.5 104.6 100.1 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 12 19 24 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 21 18 16 13 9 6 4 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 16. 12. 5. 1. -5. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##