* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 10/31/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 39 39 35 30 24 20 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 39 39 35 30 24 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 30 29 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 9 11 17 16 16 7 16 29 42 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 0 9 9 6 13 14 SHEAR DIR 72 74 86 81 80 107 102 124 191 227 248 245 246 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.6 28.8 28.7 27.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 146 143 142 138 140 155 156 138 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 65 62 60 57 53 48 46 48 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 26 28 25 15 34 29 31 18 24 -4 -13 12 200 MB DIV 51 65 59 64 55 67 40 65 20 18 6 23 39 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -8 14 33 63 LAND (KM) 621 584 553 532 516 519 570 530 373 192 -178 -322 -159 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.4 18.2 19.6 21.7 24.1 26.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.3 110.1 110.9 110.7 108.6 104.9 100.6 97.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 10 17 22 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 19 17 15 12 8 6 13 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 10. 5. -1. -5. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##