* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 10/31/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 46 48 45 41 31 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 46 48 45 41 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 40 40 38 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 9 15 15 14 10 16 36 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 6 10 8 10 10 SHEAR DIR 73 67 72 72 70 94 112 119 192 242 247 247 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 28.5 28.5 26.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 150 150 147 144 141 140 152 153 135 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 67 61 57 55 50 46 49 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 22 24 22 24 37 24 30 18 16 -22 16 200 MB DIV 72 55 62 54 69 74 40 55 18 19 18 29 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 6 37 86 LAND (KM) 701 655 602 557 515 464 479 478 317 102 -148 -425 -212 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.9 17.6 18.6 20.1 22.3 24.7 27.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.0 108.1 108.5 109.2 110.2 110.6 109.2 105.9 101.7 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 9 16 21 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 23 22 20 18 14 9 6 11 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 20. 16. 6. 0. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##