* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 10/31/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 43 46 46 44 38 33 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 43 46 46 44 38 33 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 37 36 34 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 9 14 27 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 0 3 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 81 78 66 77 90 92 116 106 128 158 211 250 241 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.2 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 147 147 145 144 141 137 134 137 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 78 74 73 73 71 66 61 56 50 42 39 41 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 28 40 38 27 23 16 33 9 8 6 13 200 MB DIV 65 72 44 65 89 64 36 22 22 21 21 16 42 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 3 11 LAND (KM) 751 725 702 675 652 618 636 676 603 489 284 128 -260 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 19.0 20.6 22.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.4 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.6 110.2 111.1 112.0 112.2 111.2 108.5 104.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 7 12 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 28 32 30 20 15 11 6 2 2 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 21. 21. 19. 13. 8. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 10/31/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##