* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 10/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 32 40 46 47 48 45 44 39 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 32 40 46 47 48 45 44 39 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 12 12 12 13 15 15 13 7 2 13 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 1 8 6 5 SHEAR DIR 81 73 68 67 82 97 89 104 92 106 127 243 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.8 27.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 147 147 146 145 143 140 136 132 140 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 74 74 72 67 60 53 46 42 39 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 10 10 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 32 33 42 37 32 29 36 48 26 27 43 200 MB DIV 77 75 68 60 65 92 94 46 27 27 31 23 43 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 2 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 795 781 763 741 723 675 667 694 668 588 427 156 15 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.1 18.1 19.7 21.7 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.8 111.7 112.4 112.3 110.8 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 10 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 24 29 32 32 25 20 10 1 12 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 20. 26. 28. 28. 25. 24. 19. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 10/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 10/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##