* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 08/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 24 20 18 12 6 2 4 11 10 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 1 2 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 86 95 95 89 66 70 76 167 166 179 161 153 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 136 136 132 127 124 122 123 119 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 52 51 50 51 54 57 53 51 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 40 54 52 42 28 19 6 4 7 11 15 200 MB DIV 28 25 27 54 26 28 11 5 9 -9 -6 -3 -12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2113 2115 2117 2097 2077 1963 1829 1697 1576 1479 1419 1394 1416 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.9 15.1 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.0 128.2 128.3 128.4 128.2 127.6 126.8 125.8 124.9 124.4 124.4 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 879 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -9. -9. -11. -13. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 08/30/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 08/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##