* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 08/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 53 60 62 62 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 53 60 62 62 61 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 39 42 44 46 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 15 13 13 15 10 8 8 6 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 4 6 9 9 SHEAR DIR 50 52 54 50 69 72 75 68 71 49 92 313 28 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 138 137 138 137 136 133 131 126 120 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 56 56 54 50 45 42 41 43 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 15 16 15 17 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 52 55 58 66 78 94 101 90 66 61 50 200 MB DIV 57 76 63 34 43 31 23 22 39 22 43 38 42 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 1 0 -1 0 3 4 10 8 9 6 LAND (KM) 2359 2361 2363 2373 2384 2347 2193 2053 1940 1865 1809 1778 1768 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.1 131.3 131.8 132.2 133.5 134.9 136.2 137.2 137.8 138.1 138.2 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 8 11 12 7 6 6 6 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 28. 35. 37. 37. 36. 35. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 08/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 08/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##