* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 08/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 37 43 47 52 53 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 37 43 47 52 53 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 8 11 9 18 15 12 5 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 2 3 -2 -1 1 0 6 9 9 SHEAR DIR 52 60 67 50 54 74 80 102 64 52 35 169 222 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 136 136 135 136 136 134 133 130 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 55 53 51 48 44 38 35 37 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 52 54 54 69 79 103 99 97 76 57 34 200 MB DIV 40 47 60 58 22 14 18 8 11 -2 9 27 21 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 4 6 LAND (KM) 2296 2302 2308 2314 2322 2371 2210 2046 1896 1770 1682 1623 1586 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.8 131.0 131.4 131.8 133.1 134.6 136.2 137.7 138.9 139.7 140.1 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 8 9 6 7 6 6 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 32. 33. 33. 32. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 08/28/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 08/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##