* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 50 52 52 51 49 47 44 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 50 52 52 51 49 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 43 48 52 53 52 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 19 15 13 16 14 19 11 16 13 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 2 1 2 0 1 -2 3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 76 79 76 80 85 90 91 86 60 62 57 64 75 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 160 158 152 147 143 138 131 125 116 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 7 9 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 78 81 80 79 83 82 78 71 67 70 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 6 7 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 2 0 2 9 4 21 24 12 7 9 0 -11 200 MB DIV 57 45 67 58 49 78 52 61 28 41 18 38 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 -3 0 -4 -2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 357 324 305 288 270 266 264 304 336 427 523 519 576 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 28 30 29 26 21 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/04/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)