* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 36 41 44 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 36 41 44 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 38 39 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 20 19 15 16 14 17 14 12 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 1 4 3 -2 3 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 69 69 79 77 86 96 76 89 80 64 60 50 62 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 160 161 161 157 151 147 145 138 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -52.3 -53.2 -52.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 10 8 8 7 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 78 82 80 80 79 76 72 65 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 8 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 11 1 1 20 29 41 15 3 -1 -5 -7 200 MB DIV 55 76 69 57 108 84 80 64 69 27 32 12 15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 433 398 366 326 304 263 248 234 253 276 364 456 474 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 10 9 7 5 5 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 16 18 21 28 23 21 19 15 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 11. 16. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/04/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)