* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 49 52 52 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 49 52 52 50 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 43 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 22 17 14 15 18 17 19 14 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 -1 1 2 1 2 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 69 66 65 85 90 78 97 71 78 79 68 70 73 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 158 160 161 160 157 151 145 138 131 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 79 80 83 81 80 76 71 66 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 36 25 9 11 6 23 20 34 22 26 37 200 MB DIV 48 64 75 84 84 99 66 85 55 34 12 18 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 423 381 352 314 280 233 214 212 233 321 498 566 721 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.2 98.8 100.1 101.5 103.0 104.8 107.0 109.5 112.1 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 19 20 20 22 20 19 16 5 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 27. 25. 22. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/03/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)