* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 44 49 56 59 56 57 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 44 49 56 59 56 57 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 42 47 51 53 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 14 17 14 16 13 18 15 14 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 0 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 68 75 81 70 64 93 87 119 74 87 69 66 71 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.7 26.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 158 159 161 161 159 155 149 142 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 73 76 79 82 80 75 69 69 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 9 9 7 7 7 6 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 42 45 36 19 14 16 38 41 52 37 24 200 MB DIV 67 61 63 65 81 86 95 70 57 52 37 8 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 374 350 342 322 302 242 189 154 123 176 274 467 491 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.3 97.0 97.7 98.4 99.6 100.7 101.9 103.3 105.1 107.2 109.8 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 16 20 20 22 20 24 20 13 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 19. 24. 31. 34. 31. 32. 30. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/03/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)