* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 56 65 70 72 59 46 34 25 18 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 56 65 70 72 59 46 34 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 51 56 55 49 43 38 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 8 5 1 9 18 29 30 30 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 0 -2 -3 8 6 10 0 5 7 6 SHEAR DIR 124 102 103 74 81 270 215 220 200 205 209 213 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 25.8 25.4 27.4 28.3 27.3 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 147 140 122 119 139 145 134 126 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 80 78 74 65 51 45 36 32 31 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 19 14 9 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 71 72 72 79 87 93 100 80 41 20 2 -19 200 MB DIV 96 136 146 123 96 87 109 89 44 32 49 27 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 11 3 -2 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 941 987 1019 999 982 873 686 434 120 74 59 -4 -29 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 8 12 14 12 6 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 36 31 24 14 0 0 5 4 3 0 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 5. 0. -4. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 4. -2. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 35. 40. 42. 29. 16. 4. -5. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 32% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)