* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 54 58 62 55 49 41 34 27 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 54 58 62 55 49 37 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 33 32 29 25 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 10 12 12 12 18 24 21 19 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 4 4 5 7 9 SHEAR DIR 133 130 133 148 153 143 176 183 210 199 230 240 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 26.5 25.3 24.8 25.9 27.2 26.9 27.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 145 141 127 116 111 123 136 132 141 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 76 75 68 56 47 39 37 33 33 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 17 17 20 19 18 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 53 71 76 81 107 102 106 71 54 45 21 16 200 MB DIV 79 113 135 151 136 96 113 69 6 54 43 55 20 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 -3 -2 -18 3 3 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 800 866 870 868 879 836 734 516 269 147 -34 -26 15 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.7 19.1 21.0 23.2 25.4 27.2 28.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.9 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.8 115.9 115.2 114.3 113.8 113.7 113.5 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 9 7 9 11 11 10 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 33 23 13 0 0 0 0 1 67 81 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 16. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 29. 33. 37. 30. 24. 16. 9. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)