* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 54 52 47 42 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 54 52 47 42 36 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 32 30 26 23 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 16 11 13 12 14 20 24 20 17 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -6 -2 -4 7 3 5 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 132 136 130 145 144 144 166 184 193 199 225 242 264 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.3 25.1 25.3 27.5 29.1 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 148 145 135 125 114 117 140 156 161 163 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 77 73 66 54 48 44 38 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 58 68 76 96 110 109 86 67 26 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 81 89 117 144 137 114 105 82 61 45 33 56 21 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 3 0 -1 -4 -1 -5 4 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 738 810 886 879 883 875 813 679 424 117 -11 32 -14 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.8 17.9 19.4 21.4 23.9 26.0 27.7 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 111.0 112.2 113.1 114.0 115.3 115.7 115.4 114.2 112.9 112.1 112.1 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 9 6 7 9 13 13 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 37 32 23 8 0 0 0 5 2 21 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 29. 27. 22. 17. 15. 16. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)