* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 43 46 43 37 30 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 43 46 43 37 30 25 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 16 18 19 24 27 39 41 41 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -6 0 -1 0 0 -2 1 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 109 147 161 159 167 197 198 221 211 216 206 215 206 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 25.8 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 145 137 121 112 110 110 110 110 101 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 76 74 73 65 58 49 38 30 20 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 11 14 14 15 15 15 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 35 44 55 65 83 89 92 73 86 76 68 200 MB DIV 63 66 94 110 121 113 87 68 52 28 30 5 -1 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 5 3 3 -1 -1 -6 -2 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 568 610 675 702 689 693 680 596 495 442 365 370 404 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.4 23.7 24.8 25.6 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.3 110.5 111.6 112.6 114.5 115.8 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.8 117.8 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 36 26 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 18. 12. 5. 0. -7. -18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)