* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 59 60 57 51 49 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 59 60 57 51 49 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 49 51 50 45 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 11 7 10 10 12 13 18 34 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 0 0 -4 -5 -5 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 66 76 76 85 121 125 153 171 190 213 210 216 220 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.7 26.5 25.3 24.8 25.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 152 149 140 128 115 110 117 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 80 79 78 77 77 69 60 54 49 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 8 10 12 13 14 14 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 13 26 29 42 48 53 56 60 59 61 46 200 MB DIV 32 27 28 39 61 109 122 78 73 56 45 47 33 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 675 693 724 754 783 874 894 862 814 723 540 341 210 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.6 19.1 20.8 22.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.2 107.3 108.4 109.5 111.5 113.1 114.5 115.4 115.7 115.3 114.4 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 40 40 39 36 39 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 34. 35. 32. 26. 24. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)