* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 10/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 65 71 71 70 67 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 65 71 71 70 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 24 30 38 49 62 73 81 80 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 13 15 12 5 6 5 5 7 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 68 60 59 56 61 67 3 317 318 300 235 254 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 27.8 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 162 162 163 162 161 158 155 154 143 121 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 7 5 9 8 10 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 77 77 77 75 75 75 71 69 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 24 17 3 -12 -6 5 13 5 27 25 30 200 MB DIV 85 77 65 47 52 21 38 43 63 57 55 35 45 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 2 0 2 -3 -4 -7 -3 -1 1 11 LAND (KM) 212 221 242 296 339 291 312 350 384 441 505 448 407 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.2 93.1 94.2 95.2 97.8 100.5 103.4 106.0 108.4 110.7 112.9 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 40 43 50 29 34 53 55 55 20 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1091 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 37. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 36. 45. 51. 51. 50. 47. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 10/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)