* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 08/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 51 54 55 54 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 51 54 55 54 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 40 42 45 47 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 2 3 7 4 5 3 3 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 7 1 11 0 4 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 48 42 353 357 348 296 31 11 9 350 82 360 114 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 157 158 158 157 153 150 145 140 135 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 66 66 64 68 70 71 66 65 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 3 5 -3 -9 3 8 17 14 38 31 42 200 MB DIV 54 41 45 56 54 36 70 42 52 41 65 31 18 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 540 536 532 538 544 546 565 557 581 627 561 525 522 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.0 101.6 102.3 103.0 104.6 106.5 108.2 109.5 110.8 111.7 112.7 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 33 41 47 55 58 35 27 29 22 12 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 26. 29. 30. 29. 27. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 08/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)