* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 54 60 68 69 70 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 54 60 68 69 70 72 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 41 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 7 5 5 8 6 7 10 13 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 0 3 -2 -3 -2 -8 -5 0 -10 SHEAR DIR 176 256 281 290 348 141 175 174 150 148 140 120 87 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 159 160 157 152 145 141 137 126 118 111 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -52.0 -50.5 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 73 73 68 68 69 67 64 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 12 11 13 15 16 21 22 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 5 7 6 8 14 6 28 45 62 65 67 200 MB DIV 58 42 9 8 12 76 82 102 81 53 42 -11 4 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 642 638 635 653 687 753 747 809 916 975 935 983 1088 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 12 13 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 36 46 44 37 42 47 37 24 19 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 17. 19. 21. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 29. 35. 43. 44. 45. 47. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)