* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 44 55 59 66 69 66 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 44 55 59 66 69 66 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 37 39 41 42 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 1 4 3 12 6 11 9 12 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 2 0 1 -2 -1 -5 -4 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 90 53 269 262 239 175 188 184 148 157 158 156 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.0 24.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 159 159 155 149 143 136 124 112 103 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 7 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 75 71 73 69 67 66 63 59 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 16 16 20 23 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 13 10 13 10 13 10 31 49 69 70 77 200 MB DIV 64 61 55 34 23 65 94 78 90 51 35 -2 9 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 1 3 0 5 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 705 683 667 655 655 662 667 712 760 856 871 951 1052 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.1 100.2 102.7 105.3 107.8 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.7 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 32 42 44 36 42 51 24 15 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 10. 16. 19. 18. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 19. 30. 34. 41. 44. 41. 41. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)