* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 57 59 57 52 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 57 59 57 52 47 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 46 55 61 62 58 52 47 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 5 5 2 9 15 19 34 48 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -8 -3 -1 5 5 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 64 60 73 55 47 354 281 266 243 232 246 246 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.3 29.0 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 156 154 152 151 148 148 155 161 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 7 2 700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 70 70 69 67 69 66 61 57 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -51 -48 -40 -29 3 28 44 49 18 9 13 1 200 MB DIV 19 30 37 47 45 71 59 85 103 130 43 41 35 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 5 14 8 3 7 LAND (KM) 895 910 932 923 922 915 909 843 662 392 166 15 -115 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.3 17.0 18.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.2 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.0 111.5 111.7 110.9 109.1 107.3 105.7 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 6 4 5 8 11 12 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 19 34 39 44 41 30 24 20 6 45 14 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. -3. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 32. 34. 32. 27. 22. 18. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##