* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 10/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 53 63 70 76 72 72 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 53 63 70 76 72 72 68 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 62 68 74 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 10 5 6 12 12 11 11 11 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 -7 -6 -5 -3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 46 70 88 105 137 195 196 173 168 143 157 214 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 160 160 160 161 159 159 160 160 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 75 79 80 79 76 71 64 61 59 56 55 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 12 14 15 18 14 14 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 19 36 38 27 37 39 52 32 43 44 38 28 200 MB DIV 25 65 59 53 62 66 70 92 83 103 69 8 19 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 376 345 315 298 280 243 191 180 185 185 168 178 201 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 4 3 0 1 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 22 21 22 24 25 24 24 27 26 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 9. 9. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 28. 38. 45. 51. 47. 47. 43. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 10/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962013 INVEST 10/19/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING