* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 08/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 31 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 37 31 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 13 13 9 12 12 10 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 1 1 3 2 2 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 22 23 28 15 1 25 24 47 47 58 65 131 178 SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.1 29.4 28.4 23.5 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 169 161 151 99 62 65 67 65 63 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 74 74 70 67 63 58 52 48 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 30 39 39 21 12 11 19 10 8 -4 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 32 58 57 28 9 -1 -3 -5 -19 -12 -1 6 6 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 0 2 1 9 4 4 5 5 1 -6 LAND (KM) 129 192 138 0 7 -12 126 315 464 573 696 776 698 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 13 10 8 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 25 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 18 CX,CY: -9/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. -1. -10. -20. -29. -36. -40. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 08/28/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962013 INVEST 08/28/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##