* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 43 45 43 43 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 43 45 43 43 44 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 26 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 6 1 9 10 11 14 9 5 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -4 -1 -5 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 220 197 221 226 196 167 135 117 127 121 121 108 155 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 27.9 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 163 163 162 158 151 141 130 118 111 107 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 71 66 67 64 62 60 68 65 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 11 9 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 9 6 21 28 29 40 46 53 64 74 64 200 MB DIV 67 61 36 12 23 73 35 20 36 53 48 53 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 1 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 603 520 439 369 285 198 147 134 181 246 365 366 381 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 50 50 35 24 22 18 10 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 18. 20. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/29/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)