* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 29 33 40 40 39 36 37 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 29 33 40 40 39 36 37 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 27 27 27 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 7 7 7 10 12 11 6 5 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 214 199 203 209 123 127 129 152 167 145 124 145 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.0 26.8 25.7 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 160 162 162 159 153 142 130 118 110 109 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -52.9 -53.4 -52.1 -52.8 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 9 9 9 7 8 6 7 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 70 69 67 61 61 64 67 70 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 11 13 11 10 8 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 14 6 6 29 28 39 46 45 52 60 62 200 MB DIV 76 59 60 55 41 97 46 54 19 58 45 30 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 701 631 562 480 394 275 214 168 215 274 353 355 394 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 49 54 42 24 20 13 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 15. 15. 14. 11. 12. 10. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/29/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)