* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 54 54 55 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 54 54 55 50 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 40 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 9 6 4 15 13 12 4 8 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 -6 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 155 176 178 160 133 119 94 127 130 122 135 144 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.7 27.6 26.2 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 155 158 160 163 161 156 150 138 124 117 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 71 71 67 67 61 66 68 66 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 13 15 14 13 14 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 5 15 19 16 28 33 43 41 35 50 50 68 200 MB DIV 108 72 54 58 62 79 109 91 8 56 43 14 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -7 -1 -2 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 809 748 686 601 511 357 271 235 216 273 369 411 470 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 39 47 51 32 22 16 8 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 30. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 8. 9. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 29. 29. 30. 26. 25. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/29/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)