* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 56 63 60 59 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 56 63 60 59 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 45 49 51 50 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 6 4 6 16 11 12 6 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -2 0 -4 -4 1 -2 -1 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 74 80 156 196 197 138 122 119 143 193 152 159 125 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.4 27.2 25.7 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 156 158 161 160 156 147 134 119 108 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 6 8 8 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 76 75 71 70 68 66 63 67 68 63 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 16 15 10 9 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 9 21 33 28 52 52 51 45 53 56 53 200 MB DIV 135 110 71 82 97 84 110 60 101 53 43 15 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -11 -2 -2 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 819 769 715 646 577 448 334 270 274 310 384 365 445 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 39 48 53 43 27 15 8 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 31. 38. 35. 34. 31. 29. 28. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/29/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)