* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 37 49 62 71 73 68 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 37 49 62 71 73 68 64 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 42 50 57 63 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 6 5 2 2 4 10 9 11 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 322 333 331 10 32 26 110 110 110 125 117 164 129 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 152 151 153 154 157 159 160 155 146 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.0 -53.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 82 81 77 71 68 70 71 71 70 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 10 13 13 12 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -27 -21 -16 -12 -2 9 14 28 15 26 28 29 200 MB DIV 114 121 104 103 133 118 106 71 110 61 59 45 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 790 805 819 828 830 803 735 651 520 402 288 231 231 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.2 15.6 17.2 18.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.9 104.4 104.8 105.2 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.7 105.9 106.5 107.0 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 27 28 29 34 47 56 54 36 15 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 9. 4. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 29. 42. 51. 53. 48. 44. 43. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/28/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 79% is 6.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)