* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 58 68 69 77 77 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 58 68 69 77 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 29 34 41 50 61 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 9 10 8 7 2 3 3 5 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 14 4 6 7 2 13 358 59 73 127 85 60 114 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 150 151 155 157 159 159 155 144 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 83 83 81 77 72 70 70 71 66 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 11 10 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -39 -36 -30 -24 -16 3 4 17 7 9 19 14 200 MB DIV 112 104 126 115 97 101 100 95 100 98 57 46 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 828 842 856 869 884 868 819 733 626 520 439 357 332 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.9 13.0 14.2 15.4 16.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.6 104.1 104.5 104.9 105.4 105.5 105.4 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.9 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 2 3 5 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 26 25 25 27 31 44 59 57 43 21 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 11. 9. 14. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 33. 38. 48. 49. 57. 57. 60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/27/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)