* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 10/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 47 48 45 37 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 47 48 45 37 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 35 34 31 27 23 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 6 8 16 15 23 30 30 31 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -5 -5 -1 2 0 0 -2 3 6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 254 269 172 172 187 201 198 205 242 254 248 251 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 148 144 134 129 123 121 120 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 51 50 45 43 40 41 40 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 5 6 8 9 3 1 0 8 2 -2 -1 0 -17 200 MB DIV 51 50 75 72 71 73 45 35 -5 14 -3 -4 -37 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 2 4 4 4 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1301 1336 1375 1409 1445 1474 1484 1498 1536 1577 1560 1501 1395 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.7 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.7 123.4 124.0 124.6 125.1 125.1 124.6 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 8 6 4 3 3 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 30 24 20 13 10 8 20 32 29 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 15. 7. -2. -10. -17. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 10/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)