* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 10/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 40 39 39 33 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 40 39 39 33 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 34 32 30 27 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 10 12 13 18 18 25 27 26 34 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -6 -7 -1 -2 -2 -3 2 7 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 204 221 223 184 182 213 203 214 221 246 242 252 254 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 148 144 134 129 123 121 120 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 58 56 59 52 50 45 44 39 42 42 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 9 14 13 0 1 0 -1 -1 3 0 -11 200 MB DIV 58 31 22 48 58 58 71 37 17 12 3 8 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 6 4 6 4 6 6 LAND (KM) 1283 1326 1375 1409 1445 1474 1484 1498 1536 1577 1560 1501 1395 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.5 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.7 123.4 124.0 124.6 125.1 125.1 124.6 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 30 24 20 13 10 8 20 32 29 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 9. 3. -3. -9. -17. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 10/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)