* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 10/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 60 59 53 44 35 28 23 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 60 59 53 44 35 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 40 44 50 54 55 52 47 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 6 8 11 15 22 22 29 34 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 1 187 229 239 188 201 207 219 230 240 238 233 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 152 143 133 126 121 117 114 113 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 60 55 56 53 51 47 45 40 41 41 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 22 15 14 17 3 -3 -9 -3 -8 -8 -17 200 MB DIV 41 63 58 50 34 69 51 51 12 5 1 -8 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 4 1 3 3 0 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1224 1260 1305 1352 1406 1473 1513 1537 1569 1577 1589 1573 1483 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.6 117.7 118.8 119.8 121.8 123.3 124.3 125.1 125.7 126.1 126.1 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 10 7 6 4 3 1 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 36 28 31 27 19 10 8 14 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 30. 29. 23. 14. 5. -2. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 10/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 8.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)