* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 08/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 22 26 22 19 18 15 14 13 17 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 54 61 69 77 85 84 94 100 94 104 110 118 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.7 26.4 25.1 23.8 22.7 22.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 156 154 148 140 126 113 99 87 79 72 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 73 72 65 61 55 52 45 42 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 9 17 14 1 8 -7 -1 -15 -11 -5 0 200 MB DIV 38 24 31 30 14 -27 7 -7 -10 -9 -9 -5 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 156 179 203 234 273 273 206 236 292 307 373 414 424 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.9 108.3 109.4 110.5 111.9 113.2 114.5 115.7 116.6 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 20 21 13 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 08/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)