* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 08/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 24 27 27 28 24 22 19 21 19 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 3 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 44 46 55 60 68 72 83 85 92 103 110 114 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 156 154 151 146 141 136 130 125 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 73 72 72 67 64 59 59 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 23 13 7 14 2 9 -9 2 -10 -8 -15 200 MB DIV 22 40 52 29 29 18 0 10 -4 23 2 6 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 153 173 197 217 238 286 360 389 367 387 439 495 552 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.3 106.6 107.0 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.9 110.9 111.9 113.0 113.9 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 23 20 18 13 7 2 7 7 7 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 08/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)