* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 72 73 72 72 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 72 73 72 72 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 46 52 57 61 64 67 69 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 12 14 15 13 12 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 -7 -4 -4 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 7 357 360 9 4 30 21 13 19 22 23 16 9 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 154 150 147 144 143 141 142 143 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 80 78 79 78 77 75 74 72 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -27 -25 -25 -21 -15 -9 0 5 2 -2 -9 200 MB DIV 68 80 70 43 50 44 49 50 20 5 -4 -18 -28 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 1 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 730 728 726 730 731 766 828 913 1047 1172 1254 1381 1562 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 55 53 51 50 41 33 31 29 20 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 42. 43. 42. 42. 44. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)