* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 59 61 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 59 61 62 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 45 49 54 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 14 16 14 14 14 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 10 359 359 9 7 28 42 56 62 48 38 31 359 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 158 157 155 151 146 143 141 137 137 131 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 75 74 77 80 77 74 68 64 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -16 -17 -24 -19 -21 -25 -21 -10 -2 0 4 200 MB DIV 63 46 56 54 49 46 34 34 7 -6 -6 -14 -12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 722 729 744 756 769 766 793 848 932 1077 1150 1266 1421 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.9 101.8 102.7 103.5 105.2 107.0 108.9 110.9 113.0 115.2 117.5 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 48 49 51 52 51 40 32 28 19 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 37. 39. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)