* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 58 61 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 58 61 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 48 55 61 68 73 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 12 13 11 10 11 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -6 -6 -4 -7 -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 327 332 342 340 358 360 17 29 39 40 38 19 355 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 159 158 157 157 152 148 145 144 143 143 142 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 75 74 75 73 75 71 69 63 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -35 -37 -33 -32 -34 -28 -28 -36 -33 -29 -25 -23 200 MB DIV 80 53 45 46 32 19 29 27 -10 -16 0 -16 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 716 716 727 752 777 807 844 908 990 1109 1233 1327 1449 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.1 103.0 104.8 106.7 108.5 110.5 112.5 114.6 116.7 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 55 50 49 50 53 54 46 35 45 32 27 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. 41. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)