* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 54 58 62 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 54 58 62 65 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 32 37 43 50 59 69 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 10 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -2 -2 -4 -7 -7 -6 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 330 1 335 357 356 360 18 40 51 59 45 88 308 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 158 156 151 147 145 145 144 145 143 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 74 72 68 73 70 69 65 65 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -32 -33 -33 -37 -42 -41 -35 -41 -43 -36 -31 -21 200 MB DIV 64 60 39 45 31 18 -6 14 -6 -19 -24 -17 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 702 710 725 752 779 826 886 946 1032 1164 1285 1390 1525 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.6 103.5 105.4 107.3 109.1 111.0 113.0 115.1 117.3 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 49 49 51 55 51 40 36 48 27 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 34. 38. 42. 45. 49. 50. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)