* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 10/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 29 27 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 29 27 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 35 35 33 31 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 19 20 14 8 3 11 21 25 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 78 79 78 90 99 109 21 247 260 264 268 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.4 25.2 24.3 23.7 23.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 151 151 150 145 137 126 114 104 98 98 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 53 53 47 41 37 33 32 29 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 70 63 58 47 28 30 10 -6 -21 -28 -5 3 200 MB DIV 33 38 25 21 17 3 -17 -6 5 -23 -23 -36 -26 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 1 0 1 1 -1 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1325 1244 1162 1101 1041 947 883 794 708 607 472 314 159 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.6 17.9 19.2 20.6 21.7 22.5 22.9 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.2 115.8 115.8 115.8 116.1 116.6 117.1 117.5 117.2 116.2 114.6 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 22 31 31 13 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -9. -15. -18. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 10/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 10/14/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING