* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 10/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 27 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 27 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 22 20 19 18 13 4 3 13 20 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 2 0 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 84 84 81 81 78 99 99 67 279 247 264 264 261 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.3 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 150 151 151 148 143 134 125 115 108 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 55 53 49 45 40 35 32 32 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 12 10 8 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 76 70 68 58 37 26 21 8 -12 -28 -22 -10 200 MB DIV 67 35 39 28 21 14 2 -11 9 -8 -23 -30 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1355 1283 1211 1154 1096 1000 951 894 819 754 641 496 348 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.4 116.0 115.9 115.8 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.6 117.8 117.2 116.0 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 17 25 31 24 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING