* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 10/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 33 34 33 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 33 34 33 31 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 21 20 21 16 13 5 12 17 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -2 3 5 2 2 0 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 70 70 96 95 100 106 115 124 191 216 240 248 264 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.5 25.4 24.5 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 150 151 150 148 145 137 127 115 106 101 104 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 56 51 45 39 33 28 27 25 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 83 71 72 67 57 46 42 27 4 -13 -26 -16 200 MB DIV 65 47 59 57 57 36 23 5 8 2 -7 -20 -33 700-850 TADV 1 2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 1338 1279 1219 1155 1090 998 931 883 791 678 564 428 293 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.8 19.1 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.6 116.3 116.0 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.5 116.9 117.0 116.5 115.4 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 18 25 27 21 10 4 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING