* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 10/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 39 41 43 42 40 37 33 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 39 41 43 42 40 37 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 34 34 34 34 32 29 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 15 19 17 14 5 8 16 25 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 73 75 82 103 105 120 133 220 244 255 284 283 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.1 24.2 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 151 151 149 143 137 126 112 103 96 95 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 62 61 56 50 43 38 34 32 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 89 80 64 64 56 57 44 22 8 -8 -30 -27 200 MB DIV 112 66 45 48 67 32 34 14 8 5 -19 -20 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -2 -4 -1 1 3 4 4 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1355 1299 1242 1163 1085 974 908 891 814 754 682 578 440 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.9 19.2 20.5 21.6 22.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.5 116.2 115.9 115.6 115.6 115.9 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.0 117.4 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 16 21 23 15 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 15. 12. 8. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING