* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 10/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 39 37 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 39 37 34 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 18 23 24 19 19 10 6 10 17 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 2 0 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 109 96 88 107 112 112 113 136 191 257 247 271 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 149 151 150 146 142 138 129 120 109 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 61 61 57 50 43 37 33 31 29 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 89 92 91 78 58 61 41 34 10 0 -7 -19 200 MB DIV 133 111 74 57 60 43 26 32 5 15 -10 -32 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 4 6 8 7 7 LAND (KM) 1359 1334 1308 1239 1170 1023 938 936 943 941 953 973 1015 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.1 115.5 115.6 116.3 117.3 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 6 6 6 4 5 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 16 22 21 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. 7. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 10/13/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING